1.0 - Who We Are and How We Work
The Investment Society Lausanne operates as "a student-run, non-profit investment fund established in 2019" on the UNIL-EPFL campus. The organization represents the largest fund of its type in the Lausanne region, providing hands-on investment management experience to students from both universities.
The society's core mission centers on uniting passionate investors, developing practical skills applicable to real markets, and preparing members for careers in the buy-side industry. The organization collaborates with industry professionals on research initiatives and facilitates career access within investment sectors.
Organizational Structure and Operations
Members organize into seven specialized teams by sector:
- Basic Materials and Energy: Commodities, petroleum, natural gas, and natural resources
- Financial Services: Banking, insurance, asset management, and fintech
- Industrials: Aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, and machinery
- Consumption and General Public Services: Consumer industries and essential services
- Healthcare: Medical services, pharmaceuticals, and equipment manufacturing
- Technology and Network Equipment: Telecommunications, semiconductors, software, and IT
- Digital Assets: Cryptocurrencies, blockchain, DeFi, and NFTs
Each team comprises analysts led by an elected portfolio manager who analyze markets, select stocks, and pitch investment ideas.
Educational Initiatives and Partnerships
The society emphasizes practical education through investment bootcamps and think tanks, often partnering with industry professionals. A notable collaboration exists with RH Asset Management SA, providing members direct access to long-term value investing instruction from practitioners. These initiatives bridge academic knowledge and real-world application.
Values and Legacy
The organization operates under core values of "passion, commitment, diversity, community, integrity, and sustainability." Since inception, the society has grown to over 35 active members, manages CHF 20,000 in assets, and engages more than 2,000 event participants annually. Alumni have advanced to prominent finance industry positions.
2.0 - 2024 Equity Market Recap
Technology
Technology dominated 2024 global markets, driven by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor innovation. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants delivered exceptional gains, contributing disproportionately to overall performance. AI-related companies experienced explosive growth as businesses invested heavily in machine learning and data centers.
Despite regulatory pressures on AI, antitrust practices, and cybersecurity, along with U.S.-China tensions affecting semiconductor exports, the sector maintained bullish investor sentiment. Technology stocks remained the primary market driver despite stretched valuations by year-end.
Financials
The financial sector rebounded strongly in 2024, benefiting from improving economic outlook and attractive valuations. Banks, insurers, and asset managers posted strong earnings growth. Higher interest rates initially supported bank net interest margins; as inflation eased and central banks signaled rate cuts, the yield curve steepened, stabilizing funding costs while boosting lending demand.
Investment banking recovered with increased M&A and IPO activity. However, regional banks faced pressure from commercial real estate exposure, and tighter lending standards limited credit availability. U.S. financials outperformed European counterparts, which struggled with stricter capital requirements and sluggish growth.
Basic Materials and Energy
Basic materials and energy sectors faced challenging 2024 conditions. Oil prices averaged in the low-$70s per barrel, with volatility from OPEC+ cuts offset by rising U.S. production and weaker consumption, particularly in China. Energy equities delivered modest returns despite strong cash flows.
Basic materials underperformed globally as China's slowdown dampened metal and chemical demand. The sector experienced increased consolidation among major oil and mining companies. Valuations remained historically low despite stable profitability, while investor sentiment weakened over prolonged oversupply concerns.
Industrials
The industrials sector achieved moderate growth supported by infrastructure spending, defense contracts, and automation investments. Government-funded projects in the U.S. and Europe boosted construction and manufacturing companies, while rising defense budgets globally fueled aerospace and military equipment demand.
Reshoring manufacturing trends increased capital investment in industrial automation and robotics. However, subdued global trade growth weighed on logistics and transportation firms. High interest rates slowed commercial equipment purchases, particularly in Europe. U.S. industrial stocks outperformed European counterparts due to aerospace and automation strength.
Consumption & General Public Services
Consumer stocks experienced mixed performance in 2024. Discretionary sectors outperformed while staples and mass-market retail lagged. Strong labor markets and wage growth supported consumer spending, especially among high-income households, driving luxury goods, travel, and e-commerce gains.
Higher interest rates pressured big-ticket purchases like automobiles and housing. Mass-market retailers struggled as inflation squeezed margins. Consumer staples underperformed as investors rotated toward growth stocks. Regional differences were significant—U.S. consumer stocks outperformed European equivalents, while China's slow recovery dampened global consumer brand demand.
Healthcare
Healthcare stocks underperformed in 2024 as investors rotated toward higher-growth opportunities. While fundamentals remained strong, stock performance lagged. Pharmaceutical companies benefited from obesity and diabetes treatment breakthroughs but faced regulatory pressures through drug price negotiations.
Biotech firms experienced mixed results as rising borrowing costs increased financing expenses. Large pharmaceutical firms continued acquiring smaller biotech companies to replenish pipelines. Healthcare services and medical device companies recovered from post-pandemic slowdowns. Investors hesitated paying premium valuations for slow-growth healthcare despite stable earnings.
3.0 - The Investment Society Lausanne in 2024
Introduction
Investment Society Lausanne experienced "a transformative year marked by impactful events, strategic board transitions, and outstanding fund performance" during 2024.
Event Highlights
Spring Semester Events:
On March 7, 2024, the society hosted "Investments & Strategy: Real Estate Funds," a French-language conference attracting 100 participants. Featured speakers included Arno Kneubühler (CEO, Procimmo SA), Besnik Bytyqi (CFO, Procimmo SA), and Jean-Sébastien Lassonde (Partner, PwC).
Two major HSBC collaborations occurred: The first (May 8, 2024) focused on private banking in Geneva, featuring speakers Jean-Louis Guiderdoni, Emma Gatti, Georgios Leontaris, and Konstantinos Arditsoglou. A second session (October 31, 2024) included Sabrina-Janna Zeyher and Svetlana Sokovykh discussing additional banking insights.
RH Asset Management Partnership:
RH Asset Management enriched the event calendar through an innovative "Think Tank" weekend where participants pitched investment opportunities before a jury, with internship opportunities as prizes. The "Equity Bootcamp" (November 20, 2024) equipped attendees with practical skills for identifying undervalued stocks.
Board Leadership and Transition
The spring semester operated under President Selim Grar and Vice President João Gomes. Under their leadership, membership grew to over 40 active members from UNIL, EPFL, and EHL, marked by robust programming and community engagement.
A significant transition occurred between semesters. Ryan Chapuis became President and Pierre Siomash became Vice President, implementing membership and recruitment refinements to foster higher-quality interactions and sharper investment strategies.
An important initiative introduced during this period was the monthly Macro Review—"a concise one-page summary developed by Vice President Pierre Siomash, Head of Investment Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, and Fund Manager & Treasurer Jeremy Kündig." This review provided members with clear financial market trend narratives, ensuring investment proposals aligned with real-time dynamics.
Digital Transformation and Future Outlook
The society launched a new website to refresh its image and boost digital presence. This digital transformation centered on increasing engagement, expanding reach, and keeping the community informed about initiatives.
Future goals focus on organizing focused, timely events; enhancing social media presence; and continuing monthly Macro Reviews. The annual report represents the beginning of ongoing stakeholder updates as the organization pursues new opportunities.
Fund Performance Overview
The fund, denominated in CHF, achieved impressive 2024 results with "a Time-Weighted Return (TWR) of 21.04% and a Money-Weighted Return (MWR) of 20.24%." This performance allowed the fund to outperform the Swiss Market Index (SMI) over the same period, reflecting robust investment strategy and deep market insight.
Sector Analysis
Technology led portfolio growth through relentless innovation and rising global demand for digital solutions. Financial Services contributed strongly from stable market conditions and strategic positioning. Cryptocurrency exposure bolstered overall returns from increased investor interest and adoption.
Conversely, Industrials and Consumption & General Public Services underperformed due to supply chain challenges and subdued consumer demand, resulting in lower returns than other segments.
Conclusion
The year 2024 delivered strategic evolution and impressive achievements through dynamic event programming, refreshed leadership, bold digital transformation, and strong fund performance. The organization remains committed to enhanced community engagement, optimized investment strategies, and clear, actionable financial market insights.
4.0 - Market Outlook 2025
BY REGION
U.S. Equities
U.S. equities enter 2025 with strong momentum supported by robust economic growth, AI-driven productivity, and an expected Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle. The S&P 500 trades near record highs with projected earnings growth of 10-15%, led by technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors.
However, valuations are stretched, with the S&P 500 trading at approximately 20× forward earnings, well above historical norms. Key macro risks include inflation persistence, wage-driven margin pressure, and uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, including potential tariffs on China, Mexico, EU, and Canada imports that could disrupt supply chains.
Geopolitical tensions—U.S.-China relations, European conflicts, and Middle East instability—remain downside risks. Lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and AI innovation provide strong tailwinds. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs remain bullish, favoring AI, financials, and cyclicals, while Vanguard expresses caution regarding high valuations and earnings disappointment risks.
The consensus suggests moderate upside for U.S. stocks, with AI, infrastructure, and select industrials driving gains, while policy uncertainty and valuations pose risks.
European Equities
European equities enter 2025 with historically low valuations, trading at a 40% discount to U.S. stocks, yet sentiment gradually improves. The Euro STOXX 600 is expected to see 7-8% EPS growth, supported by easing inflation, falling interest rates, and select sector strength.
However, sluggish GDP growth (~1%), political instability in France and Germany, and weak external demand from China pose risks. The ECB's anticipated rate cuts (approximately 5 in 2025) could support equities, though fiscal constraints remain headwinds. The Ukraine war represents a key wildcard—de-escalation could significantly boost investor confidence, while prolonged conflict or U.S. trade tensions could weigh heavily.
Sector-wise, defense, renewable energy, and consumer staples are positioned to outperform, while automobiles, basic materials, and some financials may struggle. Institutional views remain mixed: BlackRock upgraded Euro STOXX 600 to "neutral" citing attractive valuations; UBS remains bearish, warning of -5% EPS contraction; Goldman Sachs is optimistic, raising index targets especially if Ukraine tensions de-escalate.
Despite structural challenges, rebounding global demand, monetary easing, and geopolitical clarity could make European equities "one of 2025's most attractive contrarian bets."
Asian Equities
Asian equities present mixed 2025 outlook, with India and Japan expected to outperform while China struggles. India's 6-7% GDP growth, structural reforms, and booming digital economy make it a top investment destination, with tech, consumer, and financials positioned for strong earnings growth.
Japan continues benefiting from corporate governance reforms, a weaker yen, and rising shareholder returns. However, China's economy remains sluggish (~4.5% GDP growth), burdened by weak consumer confidence, a struggling property market, and geopolitical U.S.-China risks. Despite deep undervaluation (~10× forward earnings), recovery remains uncertain without strong policy stimulus.
Asian tech, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea, benefits from global AI trends, while Southeast Asia attracts investment through supply-chain diversification away from China. Goldman Sachs favors Japan; J.P. Morgan is bullish on India and Taiwan; BlackRock sees select China opportunities despite broader skepticism.
Overall, Asia ex-China is positioned for strong returns from domestic demand, tech investment, and corporate reforms, while China's outlook remains uncertain and policy-dependent.
Emerging Markets
Emerging market equities enter 2025 attractively valued at 11-12× forward earnings, with strong fundamentals in India, Latin America, and the Middle East, while China remains uncertain. Declining inflation and expected U.S. rate cuts should ease financial conditions, supporting EM capital flows.
Growth differentials between EM and developed markets are widening, with India (~7% GDP growth) and Brazil (~2.5%) leading. Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia benefit from supply-chain diversification, while commodity exporters could gain if oil and metals prices rise.
However, geopolitical risks including U.S.-China trade tensions, Middle East conflicts, and Russia-Ukraine could trigger volatility. J.P. Morgan views EM as an underpriced opportunity; Goldman Sachs remains selectively bullish (favoring India and commodity plays); BlackRock highlights re-rating potential if global liquidity improves.
Risks include currency volatility, a stronger U.S. dollar, and political uncertainty in key markets. EM equities offer compelling valuation opportunity, though selective approach remains key, with India, Latin America, and parts of Asia offering strongest growth potential.
BY SECTOR
Technology and Network Equipment
The technology sector continues dominating global markets in 2025, driven by AI adoption, cloud expansion, and semiconductor breakthroughs. AI-driven business models fuel revenue growth across enterprise software, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure.
U.S.-China trade tensions impact semiconductor supply chains, with export controls on advanced chips leading to reshoring efforts in the U.S. and Europe. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs remain bullish on AI and cloud infrastructure; J.P. Morgan sees valuation risks in overextended mega-caps, advocating broader tech rallies beyond Magnificent Seven stocks.
Tech stocks trade at premium valuations, but projected strong earnings (~10-15% growth) support the outlook. 5G penetration is expected to reach 2.7 billion global connections, driving networking hardware and telecom service demand. While regulatory scrutiny on big tech persists, sector profitability, innovation, and digital transformation dominance make it a key market leader.
Financial Services
Financial sector performance in 2025 depends on interest rate movements, economic growth, and regulatory changes. With central banks expected to cut rates, banks could benefit from lower funding costs, though net interest margins may compress.
A steeper yield curve could improve profitability for traditional lenders, while capital markets firms may see M&A and IPO resurgence, with Goldman Sachs projecting 25% deal volume increase. Fintech, blockchain payments, and AI-driven risk management disrupt traditional banking, with digital wallets and instant payments gaining market share.
Financial sector valuations remain attractive, trading at 52% discount to S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis. J.P. Morgan forecasts 7-9% earnings growth for financial firms, while BNP Paribas remains cautious about commercial real estate credit risks. Overall, financials face stable but moderate growth with selective opportunities in wealth management, insurance, and fintech.
Basic Materials and Energy
Basic materials and energy sectors enter 2025 with stable but uncertain outlooks influenced by monetary policies, commodity prices, and geopolitical risks. The anticipated rate-cutting cycle could stimulate industrial activity, supporting metals, oil, and gas demand, though sluggish global growth, particularly in China, remains concerning.
The clean-energy transition reshapes the industry, with demand for copper, lithium, and battery materials increasing, while traditional producers invest in carbon capture, biofuels, and renewables. Oil markets face oversupply risks, with Brent crude expected between $65-$75 per barrel.
Trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, could inflate domestic prices but impact supply chains, while resource nationalization in emerging markets poses mining firm risks. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices could exceed $10,000/t by 2026; J.P. Morgan projects oversupplied oil markets.
Despite challenges, mining and energy firms remain highly profitable, supported by strong free cash flows and dividends. Investors focus on metals essential for energy transition while maintaining traditional energy exposure.
Consumption & General Public Services
The consumer sector enters 2025 with resilience, though headwinds persist as real wage growth, inflation, and interest rates determine spending power. Consumer cash flows are expected to rise approximately 5.2% in 2025, driven by easing inflation, strong labor markets, and stable savings.
Trade tensions remain concerning, with tariffs on electronics, apparel, and household goods keeping consumer prices elevated, especially in China-dependent supply chains. Digital commerce rise, AI-driven forecasting, and automated customer service reshape retail, favoring e-commerce and omnichannel strategies.
Goldman Sachs maintains positive discretionary spending outlook; BlackRock warns of high household debt limiting lower-income consumer growth. Luxury goods, travel, and hospitality remain strong, but mass-market retailers could outperform in stable inflation. Institutional investors favor strong pricing power companies and dividend-paying staples for stability.
Healthcare
Healthcare remains a defensive stronghold in 2025 with stable demand, innovation, and demographic tailwinds driving earnings. An aging population in the U.S., Europe, and China supports long-term growth, while regulatory risks around drug pricing and Medicare negotiations pose uncertainties.
Biotech advances, AI-driven diagnostics, and precision medicine transform the industry, with mRNA vaccines, gene therapies, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs gaining traction. AI revolutionizes medical research and hospital operations, improving efficiency and early disease detection.
Healthcare sector valuations are attractive, as 2024 underperformance makes it a potential rebound play. Fidelity sees healthcare as undervalued, with opportunities in biotech, pharma, and medical devices; J.P. Morgan advises looking beyond GLP-1 hype, focusing on AI-driven innovations. M&A activity is expected to rise.
Industrials
Industrials enter 2025 with strong momentum supported by infrastructure spending, defense investment, and automation trends. Government-funded projects in the U.S. and EU boost machinery, transportation, and construction material demand, while global defense spending (projected $2.46 trillion) benefits aerospace and military contractors.
Reshoring manufacturing leads to new factory construction in the U.S. and Southeast Asia, increasing industrial automation and robotics demand. AI-driven predictive maintenance, 5G smart factories, and energy-efficient manufacturing transform the sector. Goldman Sachs overweights U.S. manufacturing stocks, while supply chain recovery allows firms to clear backlogs, boosting 2025 earnings.
Fitch upgraded aerospace & defense to 'improving,' citing high demand; Fidelity sees value in automation and logistics. Overall, industrials are well-positioned for outperformance from capex cycles, innovation, and defense-driven spending.
Geopolitical Uncertainties & Market Volatility
Several global developments could drive volatility throughout 2025:
Trade Policy & Tariffs: Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese imports could disrupt global supply chains, impacting international trade-reliant sectors.
U.S.-China Relations: Technology restriction escalation and trade dispute intensification create semiconductor and AI industry uncertainty with global spillover effects.
European Political Instability: France and Germany political fragmentation combined with Brexit-related adjustments could weaken Eurozone growth and investor confidence.
Middle East & Energy Markets: OPEC+ production agreement uncertainty and potential geopolitical conflicts pose energy price and inflation stability risks.
Conclusion
The global equity outlook for 2025 reflects divergent regional economic trends, sectoral shifts, and heightened geopolitical risks. Global growth is projected at 3.2%, with macroeconomic policies and market dynamics driving equity performance.
U.S. fiscal expansion and AI investments support growth, though policy uncertainties fuel volatility. Europe faces stagnation despite ECB rate cuts, with luxury and pharmaceuticals showing resilience. Asia sees India thriving on consumption and FDI, while China struggles with structural slowdowns and trade restrictions.
Geopolitical risks including U.S.-China trade tensions and regional conflicts add uncertainty. As markets adjust to monetary shifts and fiscal policies, active management and sectoral rotation remain key to navigating risks and capturing 2025 opportunities.
Sources:
- UBP House View, Dec 2024
- J.P. Morgan, Nov 2024
- BNP Paribas, Feb 2025
- Yahoo Finance
- Reuters
- Bloomberg
5.0 - Message from the Board and Conclusion
Reflecting on 2024, the board acknowledges a year "defined by achievement, growth, and the relentless pursuit of excellence." The journey was marked by innovative initiatives, dynamic events, and invaluable contributions from every member and partner shaping the community.
The organization extends gratitude to the entire community, noting that "Your unwavering support and active engagement have been the cornerstone of our progress, enabling us to build not only a robust investment fund but also a vibrant hub of ideas, collaboration, and professional growth."
Looking toward Spring Semester 2025, a new board, led by President Pierre Siomash and Vice President Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, is "committed to pioneering fresh strategies, deepening community engagement, and seizing emerging opportunities in the evolving financial landscape."
The organization commits to pursuing excellence, fostering meaningful connections, and empowering future finance professionals.
Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer and Pierre Siomash